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Since becoming conference rivals, Oklahoma is 6-1 straight up and 4-3 against the spread in the rivalry with TCU, including two wins and covers over the Horned Frogs last season. Can the Sooners continue with that dominance Saturday afternoon at The Carter in Fort Worth?
College football point spread: The Sooners opened as nine-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report.)
College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 43.6-25.8 Sooners (College football picks on every game).
Why the Oklahoma Sooners can cover the spread
Oklahoma started 5-0 this season but looks to bounce back this week after losing the Red River Shootout two weeks ago to Texas 48-45. The Sooners then had last week off to stew.
OU trailed the Longhorns 24-10 in the second quarter and 45-24 through three quarters but scored touchdowns on three straight possessions to forge a 45-45 tie. The Sooners then lost it on a 40-yard Texas field goal with nine seconds left.
On the day, Oklahoma racked up 532 yards of offense, 222 on the ground and 310 through the air. But three turnovers, which equaled their giveaway total for the season coming in, basically cost the Sooners 10 points.
Despite the loss, Oklahoma remains in the running for a spot in the College Football Playoff. It just can’t afford another one.
Why the TCU Horned Frogs can cover the spread
TCU is also looking to rebound this week after falling at home to Texas Tech last Thursday 17-14. The Frogs led the Red Raiders 7-3 at the half and 14-10 in the fourth quarter but gave up a 38-yard draw play for a Texas Tech touchdown and could not respond as their eight-game home winning streak came to an end.
On the night, TCU out-gained the Red Raiders 411-353, as the Frogs defense held the Texas Tech offense to 260 yards and 31 points below its season averages. However, three turnovers—including an interception from the Red Raiders’ 3-yard line—and a missed field goal basically cost TCU 12 points.
The Frogs have now out-gained five of their six opponents this season. Three weeks ago, TCU beat Iowa State 17-14, and that Cyclones team just knocked off what was an undefeated West Virginia outfit.
Smart betting pick
The Sooners beat the Frogs twice last year by scores of 38-20 in the regular season and 41-17 in the Big 12 championship game, and Saturday’s game should play out along similar lines. The smart money here gives the points with Oklahoma.
College football betting trends
The total has gone under in seven of Oklahoma’s last nine games vs TCU.
The total has gone under in 11 of TCU’s last 12 games vs its conference.
Oklahoma is 17-0 SU in its last 17 games on the road.
All college football odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week’s top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.